Trump Beat Harris Among Pretrial Detainees in Chicago’s Biggest Jail

Among the voting blocs that made big swings toward Donald Trump in the presidential election: those being held in pretrial detention in Chicago’s largest jail complex.
Trump gained with nearly every population group in the race against Vice President Kamala Harris this year, sweeping each battleground state and narrowly winning the popular vote. The election saw substantial rightward shifts in some blue states, including Illinois, which shifted six points toward Trump.
Those gains were even reflected in Cook Count Jail, where Trump performed much stronger than he did four years ago against President Joe Biden.
According to data from the Chicago Board of Election Commissioners, Trump narrowly carried the precinct that is home to the Cook County Department of Corrections, which houses individuals who have been accused of a crime but have not yet gone to trial, as well as some surrounding areas.
Trump received support from about 49 percent of voters in the precinct, while Harris earned the support of 47 percent. In 2020, Biden carried the precinct, which has been slightly redrawn, with 70 percent of the vote, compared to Trump’s 26 percent, according to the election commissioners board.
Put another way, the precinct went from voting for Biden by 44 points to backing Trump by about one-and-a-half points, more than a 45 point swing in only four years.
The Cook County jail housed more than 5,600 people in 2019, making it the sixth largest jail in the country, according to the U.S. Department of Justice Census of Jails.
Christopher Uggen, regents professor and distinguished McKnight professor in sociology, law and public affairs at the University of Minnesota, told Newsweek that support for Trump among the population of incarcerated detainees is less surprising in 2024 than it would have been 20 years ago as working-class and lower-income Americans, who are overrepresented in the criminal justice system, shift toward Republicans.
Those trends have been particularly notable with men, who make up the bulk of pretrial detainees, he said.
“So, to some extent the current move toward Trump is in line with the national trends fueled by the economy, immigration concerns, and other campaign issues,” he said.
Uggen said he has seen “some evidence that people with felony-level records may be more likely to support independent or ‘outsider’ candidates, particularly the former governor of Minnesota, Jesse Ventura.”
He noted that it would only be speculation to guess whether the shift had anything to do with Harris’ prosecutorial experience, or Trump’s felony convictions.
Across the country, more states are granting voting rights to individuals who have been incarcerated or convicted of felonies, and Uggen said both parties should consider the needs of these voters over the coming years.
“As more people with felony-level records regain the right to vote, I hope that both major parties will begin to take their interests into account—not necessarily regarding crime and punishment, but in terms of providing the work, education, and assistance programs that they need when they reenter society,” he said.
Newsweek reached out to the Trump transition team and Harris’ team for comment via email.
The election results aren’t the first indication that Trump has remained popular among the incarcerated population, despite his tough-on-crime rhetoric and policy positions that were key in this year’s elections.
A poll conducted by The Marshall Project earlier this year found that about half of incarcerated people said they would vote for Trump in the election, a finding that closely reflected the national popular vote this year, as well as the results from Cook County.
It found that Trump’s support was strongest among white incarcerated people, with 61 percent of them saying they would support him over Harris. It also found a “substantial minority” of incarcerated Black men would vote for Trump as well. It polled more than 54,000 people in 785 jails and prisons across the country.
Detainees also skew independent, according to the poll. About 35 percent of respondents said they identify as independent voters, while Democrats and Republicans make up 18 percent each of the incarcerated population.
Trump was the first major party presidential nominee to be convicted of a felony. He was convicted in May on 34 counts of falsifying business records as part of a scheme to cover up an alleged affair with adult film actor Stormy Daniels. Trump has denied having an affair with Daniels, maintains his innocence and has sought to appeal the case.
Trump and Harris have offered different visions for criminal justice over the years.
On the campaign trail, Trump has portrayed himself as the candidate who is stronger on crime, a key issue for many voters this year. At the same time, he signed into law the First Step Act during his first term, a bipartisan piece of legislation aimed at helping some incarcerated individuals secure early release by participating in programs aimed at reducing recidivism.
Harris, who served as California’s attorney general and San Fransisco’s district attorney, cast the race as an election between a prosecutor and a felon in an effort to draw attention to Trump’s criminal charges and Harris’ prosecutorial record.
She has described herself as both a tough-but-fair prosecutor who took on all sorts of crime, ranging from violent gangs to white-collar fraudsters, during her tenure as DA and AG. This framing, embraced by many of her allies, sparked some pushback from Democrats who warned the rhetoric could be damaging to others accused of crimes.
“The prosecutor versus the felon is the kind of glib expression that’s perfect for an election-year bumper sticker. However, the suggestion that a “felon” is inherently and permanently untrustworthy makes for a heaping helping of hypocrisy from a party that has rightly identified overcriminalization, mass incarceration and voter suppression as systemic problems,” MSNBC Opinion Editor Jarvis DeBerry wrote in an August opinion piece.
At the same time, she did focus on some criminal justice policies, such as repealing mandatory minimum sentences, while campaigning. But in the end, Trump handily beat Harris among voters who listed crime and safety as their top issue, according to exit polls.